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BUNCH COUNT SUMMARY Allied's 2011 San Joaquin Valley (SJV) bunch count summary is contained in the first table below. The second table shows the percent change from 2010. For each of the major varieties we have numerous sample ranches, and each ranch has numerous vines we sample. This bunch count summary includes the San Joaquin Valley from Lodi to Bakersfield and is broken into regions, as described below. Allied does not do bunch counts in the coastal regions due to the fact that most growers adjust their crop load significantly in those regions throughout the growing season to meet winery expectations for cropload and quality. For some of the varieties in certain districts we have entered "N/A". This means that either there are little to no grapes of that variety grown in that district or the data we gathered was categorized and presented in an alternative category. The following are average bunch counts per vine taken from various ranches in 2011.
The 2011 bunch counts for winegrapes are undeniably down from 2010. Across the board, we see lower counts with percentages that are off from the previous year by double digits. Most areas of the state have had strong crops the last two years, with the exception of Lodi in 2010. Curiously, the Lodi bunch counts are down in 2011 even despite the relatively light crop last year in that region. It will be interesting to follow crop development to see if the lower counts are offset by larger, heavier bunches. On the surface, 2011 bunch counts indicate that California may have a crop that is closer to average than last year (although there is some question about what "average" is!). Some are even speculating that it will be on the short side, but it's a little too early to make that determination. Frost damage in early April negatively affected some areas of the state including the northern interior and central coast, but none of the fields that we count were affected by frost in 2011. Looking at specific varieties, bunch counts on all SJV Merlot, all SJV Chardonnay and north valley Zinfandel are down significantly from 2010. All other major winegrape varieties were down as well, although maybe not as much percentage-wise as the three mentioned above. Word from the coastal areas is that Zinfandel and Chardonnay have started the season "looking light", but only time will tell. Thompson Seedless is actually up by about 11% from 2010 and coincidentally is about 10% larger than the 10-year average bunch count for the variety. With the bunches stretching nicely during the mild Spring, most expect a solid Thompson Seedless crop in 2011. This is not necessarily a bad thing considering the demand from all sectors of the business, be it raisin, concentrate, brandy or wine. But as we always say, bunch counts are only the first indication of potential crop size. There's a long way to go before harvest, and Mother Nature may have something to say before it's all said and done.
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