|
Earlier this month, the State of California Ag Statistics Service released the first 2002 grape crop forecast as determined by survey of numerous growers, processors, and the like. In August the State will release its objective measurement survey which includes actually analyzing and recording crop size (i.e. weight).
The State concluded that there looks to be 7.5% more wine grapes this year than last (based on yields alone). Last year the wine grape crop ended up over three million tons with 3.369 million tons total being crushed, including concentrate grapes. The state's estimate this year is that there will be 3.3 million tons of wine grapes produced. When we add concentrate grapes into the mix we could easily see a four million ton crush. The wine grape crop is estimated at a merely 10% increase even with a larger acreage base (from 480,000 in 2001 to 491,000 in 2002). Even though the estimate is not as high as expected by many in the industry, there is still an overall feeling of anxiety due to the last couple of year's disappointing spot market performances in almost all areas. Furthermore, winery capacity issues are becoming a major concern once again as they were in 1997 as well as 2000. With each passing year of more producing acreage, wineries find it more and more challenging to house all of the supply.
As for the raisin crop estimate, the State's estimate is consistent with what most of the industry feels is out there - a large crop. The state puts the raisin variety crop estimate at 2.55 million tons. Last year, the crop totaled only 1.8 million tons. On a per acre basis, the yield is estimated to be 10.4 tons. This yield, if accurate, would mean this year's crop would be the second largest in the last ten years, right behind 1997 and slightly more than 2000. Last year, nearly 400,000 tons (green) of raisins were taken out of production by the RID program, and this year we are estimating over 250,000 tons will be eliminated from production by the RID. Overall, raisin varieties production could be up in excess of 40% from 2001.
As far as table grapes are concerned, the state estimates a crop of 700,000 tons while last year's production was 697,000 tons (a 10% increase). This brings the total grape crop estimate to 6,620,000 tons for 2002.
Go back to news page.
|
